South Asia

Monthly political risk, economic forecasts and business environment analysis on each country market

Latest South Asia Analysis

Economic Analysis - Vision 2030 Implementation To Prove Difficult - MAY 2017

The laying out of Nepal's Vision 2030 is a positive step as it provides policymakers with a roadmap for the landlocked country's economic development. However, we expect implementation to be slow due to considerable challenges including an underdeveloped agriculture sector and political gridlock. We therefore maintain our forecast for Nepal's long-term growth to average 3.0% over the next...

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Economic Analysis - National Development Plan To Lay Foundation For Long-Term Growth - APR 2017

Bhutan's national development plan and efforts to diversify and strengthen its economic base are positive steps in sustaining growth in the long-term. In the near term, we expect continued investments in the hydropower sector to remain the key driver of growth, but note that the overreliance on this sector could have longer-term ramifications. As such, we maintain our forecast for growth to...

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Economic Analysis - Infrastructure Investment Positive For Long-Term Growth - MAR 2017

We expect the steady stream of investment in Nepal's infrastructure to be positive for the economy in the long run, while the slow reconstruction process following the earthquake and aftershocks in 2015 will continue to weigh on growth in the near term. We therefore maintain our long-term forecast for growth to average 2.9% over the next decade. However, the unstable political climate and poor...

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Economic Analysis - Demonetisation To Weigh On Growth - FEB 2017

The demonetisation programme in India is likely to have a negative effect on Nepal's economy, with the country being heavily reliant on India for remittances and trade. In addition, still-slow reconstruction efforts are likely to present further headwinds to growth. As such, we have downgraded our growth forecast for FY2016/17 to 2.2% from 2.5% previously.

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