South Asia

Monthly political risk, economic forecasts and business environment analysis on each country market

Latest South Asia Analysis

Political Risk Analysis - Thimpu To Seek To Improve Ties With Beijing - OCT 2017

Ongoing tensions between India and China over the territorial dispute in the Doklam region between China and Bhutan highlights the foreign policy challenges that Bhutan faces and we expect these challenges to persist as both China and India seek to expand their respective spheres of influence. With concerns rising within Bhutan over the scope of India's influence, Thimpu will likely seek to...

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Political Risk Analysis - Rising Religious Violence Poses Downside Risk To Growth Outlook - SEPT 2017

There has been an increase in occurrence of religious violence in Sri Lanka, and we believe that the government's inaction could further embolden perpetrators and aggravate religious tensions in the country. Should the situation worsen over the coming months, we would look to downgrade the country's short-term political risk score (which currently stands at a mediocre 70.0) and potentially its...

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Economic Analysis - Growth Downgraded But Construction Outlook Still Positive - AUG 2017

We now expect Sri Lanka's real GDP growth to come in at 4.3% in 2017 (from 5.0% previously), before recovering to 4.9% in 2018, as adverse weather conditions are likely to have a lasting negative impact on the economy. We remain positive on both the construction and export manufacturing industries, but note that risks are weighted to the downside with regards to the latter.

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