Political Risk Analysis - Structural Challenges To Weigh On LT Political Outlook - MAR 2018

BMI View: Myanmar ranks low at 177 out of 202 countries, with a long-term political risk score of 42.9 due to considerable weaknesses in the characteristics of polity and characteristics of society sub-components. This has been demonstrated by the rise in the number of detained journalists in H217 and the attack by the militant ARSA on Myanmar's military, underscoring the long-term challenges the country faces as it attempts to transition towards a democracy.

Myanmar scores a low 42.9 (out of 100) in our long-term political risk score, ranking it 177 out of the 202 countries we cover. This is compared to the global average of 62.2 and the regional average of 61.9. Due to the country's nascent democratic structure, the overall score is dragged down by the characteristics of polity sub-component, which has one of the weakest scores (28.9, versus the global average of 59.6), underscoring the difficulties that the government faces in establishing sound institutions. The detainment of journalists over the course of H217 further demonstrates the issues the country faces in its journey towards democracy amid persistent constraints on the freedom of press. In addition, constant armed conflict between the military (Tatmadaw) and various armed rebel groups across the country continues to weigh on Myanmar's characteristics of society score and we believe that this is likely to persist following the attack by the militant Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) on the Tatmadaw in early January.

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