Political Risk Analysis - Rising Political Tensions Could Trigger Fresh Unrest - NOV 2017


BMI View: While the Supreme Court ' s nullification of the 16th Amendment is likely to preserve judicial independence in Bangladesh and prevent the country from slipping into a one-party state, we believe that the ensuing verbal showdown between the ruling AL and opposition BNP could escalate into protests and violence. Bangladesh is prone to social instability and this has been reflected in its poor short-term political risk index score of 60.0 out of 100.

We believe that the Supreme Court's decision to rescind parliament's authority to dismiss top judges will go some way in preserving the rule of law and integrity of the judiciary in Bangladesh. However, the Awami League (AL) government's defiant posture and threats to the judiciary have seen the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) ramp up their rhetoric against the government, calling for its resignation and alleging that the latter is in contempt of the court. While both sides are currently engaged in a verbal fight, we see scope for a further escalation of tensions in the coming months which could result in social unrest and a deterioration of the business environment. Bangladesh is highly prone to social instability as both parties have a tendency to mobilise their supporters on the streets by means of a mass demonstration, and this has been reflected in its below-average short-term political risk index score of 60.0 (out of 100).

Background

Bangladesh A Regional Laggard
South Asia - Short-Term Political Risk Index Score, Out Of 100
BMI

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