Political Risk Analysis - Parliamentary Elections Likely To Result In Incumbent Victory - SEPT 2017


BMI View: Timor-Leste will be holding its parliamentary elections on July 22 and it is likely that the dominant two parties, CNRT and Fretilin are likely to maintain their leading positions due to the weakness of the opposition and the popularity of the largest parties. However, the establishment of PLP and its anti-corruption platform presents downside risks as younger voters could decide to vote for the new party instead. We thus maintain our short-term political risk score of 53.7 (out of 100) to reflect the uncertainty.

Timor-Leste will be holding its general elections on 22 July and 21 political parties are set to contest for 65 seats in the unicameral parliament. The elections are important as they will determine the country's economic future over the coming years as it seeks to move away from its overreliance on oil and gas and will test the strength of coalition of the two largest political parties in the country - the Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor (Fretilin) and the National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT). While we expect both parties to contest separately before establishing an alliance after the elections, it is likely that both parties will maintain their dominant positions in parliament due to their popularity and the weakness of the opposition. However, the establishment of the People's Liberation Party (PLP) by former president Taur Matan Ruak presents downside risks. Running on an anti-corruption platform, PLP has presented itself as an alternative to the CNRT-Fretilin alliance and could attract younger voters. We thus maintain our short-term political risk score of 53.7 (out of 100) to reflect this uncertainty.

Incumbent Parties To Retain Dominant Positions

Policy-Making Likely To Remain In Hands Of CNRT And Fretilin
Timor-Leste - Short-Term Political Risk Score, Out Of 100
BMI

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