Political Risk Analysis - Guterres's Presidential Victory Positive For Political Stability - MAY 2017


BMI View: With more than 90% of the votes having been counted, it is likely that former guerrilla Francisco Guterres from the ruling Fretilin will become the next president of Timor-Leste. His victory suggests that voters approve of the current unity government, which would be positive for the parliamentary elections in July. With the president being a largely ceremonial post, we maintain our short-term political risk score at 53.7 to reflect uncertainty in run up to parliamentary elections.

Preliminary results suggest that former guerilla Francisco Guterres (also known as Lu-Olo) will become the next president of Timor-Leste. Apart from being the chairman of Fretilin, the second largest party in the country, he also has the support of National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT's) leadership (the largest party). Thus, his victory indicates that establishment politicians are firmly in power and the new generation of leaders has yet to establish themselves with the voters. This also suggests that Fretilin and CNRT are likely to be voted back to power during the parliamentary elections held in July. With the presidency being a largely ceremonial position, we are maintaining our short-term political risk score at 53.7 (out of 100) to reflect uncertainty in the run up to the parliamentary elections.

Guterres To Be Next President

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