Political Risk Analysis - Governments Efforts At Rakhine Peace To Fall Short - DEC 2017

BMI View: The situation in Myanmar ' s Rakhine state is likely to remain tense following the end of the unilateral ceasefire by the militant group, ARSA. In addition, the government's efforts to promote inter-religious peace are unlikely to improve racial and religious relations in Rakhine as these measures fail to address the root of the problem. We therefore maintain our social stability score at 50.0.

We do not envisage an improvement of the situation in Myanmar's Rakhine state over the coming months despite the apparent cessation in hostilities. Instead, we expect tensions in the state to persist following the end of a unilateral ceasefire by the militant Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) on October 10. While the civilian National League for Democracy (NLD) has stepped up efforts to promote inter-religious peace, we believe that these initiatives are unlikely to lead to an improvement of the situation in Rakhine as they fail to address ethnic, religious, and cultural tensions within the state. Furthermore, the rally for peace does not change the legal status of the Rohingya (known as 'Bengalis' in Myanmar), which is a key point of contention for the Rohingya. With tensions likely to continue simmering, we maintain our social stability score at 50.0 out of 100.

Tensions To Persist Following Expiration Of Ceasefire Agreement

Race And Religious Issues Weighing On Social Stability
ASEAN - Social Stability Scores, Out Of 100

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