Political Risk Analysis - Diplomacy Gaining Momentum, But Volatility Will Persist - APR 2018
BMI View: Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the North Korean nuclear crisis are likely to gain momentum over the coming months, following Pyongyang's conciliatory moves ahead of the Winter Olympic Games. However, the US will remain skeptical, and we caution that the geopolitical mood will remain highly volatile.
Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the North Korean nuclear crisis are likely to gain momentum over the coming months, following cordial meetings between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and a high-level Northern delegation that attended the Pyeongchang Winter Olympic Games' opening ceremony on February 9. That delegation was led by President of the Presidium Kim Yong Nam, the North's ceremonial head of state, but crucially included Kim Yo Jong, the younger sister of the North's Supreme Leader, Kim Jong Un. Given that Kim Yo Jong is reportedly a top aide to her brother, her presence brought considerable clout to the delegation. Overall, the occasion marked the highest-profile Northern delegation to visit the South, and the first time that a blood member of the Kim family had made such a trip. The most significant development of the meeting was an invitation to President Moon to visit Kim Jong Un in the North "at his earliest convenience".
New North-South Summit Would Not Resolve Nuclear Dispute