Political Risk Analysis - Assessing Potential Miscalculation Risks And Triggers For Conflict - DEC 2017


BMI View: Although the immediate sense of crisis has abated, there remain a number of triggers for conflict between North Korea and the United States. In particular, t here is a risk that either Pyongyang or Washington, DC, may ' miscalculate ' , causing the other side to go on the offensive.

Although the immediate sense of crisis has abated, we expect the geopolitical situation around the Korean Peninsula to remain tense for the foreseeable future, and warn that the crisis could quickly be inflamed once again. We retain the view that neither Pyongyang nor Washington, DC, want an outbreak of conflict, but could yet initiate one through risky behaviour in which it miscalculates, prompting the other side to go on the offensive.

What Do We Mean By Miscalculation?

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