Industry Trend Analysis - Strong Domestic Economy Will Benefit The Market_x000d_ - SEPT 2017
BMI View: Our revis ed forecasts show that the Philippines medical device market will register double-digit growth over the next five years in local currency terms as the economy continues to perform well, and lower growth in US dolla r terms, due to the weaker peso . The market will benefit from positive drivers such as t h e country ' s large population, its target of universal healthcare and a growing medical tourism sector, while limited domestic production and strong competition from markets in Asia will continue to limit market growth.
In local currency terms, we have revised upwards our forecast and now project that the Philippines medical device market will grow by a 2016-2021 CAGR of 11.2%, which should see it rise to PHP37.5bn by 2021. The market will benefit from a good economic performance, with the Philippines being one of the fastest growing economies in the region. We forecast economic growth to average 6.2% over the next five years, likely to be driven by an improved business environment, positive demographics, and the government's expansionary fiscal plans. We note, however, that downside risks to the short-term growth outlook are rising due to political infighting and factionalism within the government.
In US dollar terms, we have revised down our forecast and now project that the medical device market will grow by a 2016-2021 CAGR of 9.3%, which should see it rise to USD744.7mn by 2021. A weakening of the local currency against the US dollar will result in a slightly lower projected CAGR in US dollar terms. We expect stronger growth from 2018 onwards, however, when the peso will begin to perform better.
|Strong Economic Growth Will Support The Market|
|Medical Device Market, Local Currency, 2011-2021|
|Source: National Sources/BMI|