Industrial Production Surges

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Highlighting the rapid rebound seen in Taiwan's economy through H209 was December's industrial production figure - which came in up 47.3% y-o-y following a 31.5% y-o-y gain notched up in November. While the y-o-y surge is to a large extent due to base effects (industrial production fell 32.0% y-o-y in December 2008), the underlying trend lends support to our outlook for the Taiwanese economy in 2010. Indeed, on the back of improved economic conditions domestically and internationally, we forecast 2010 real GDP growth at 4.6% - up from an estimated -2.8% in 2009.