Economy / South Korea
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Macroeconomic Forecast South Korea
July 2008 | Macroeconomic ForecastsSorry, you must be a subscriber to view this article in full. If you are a subscriber please login.
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BMI View: We maintain our above-consensus 4.7% GDP growth forecast for 2008 in spite of the growing macroeconomic woes in the form of decade-high inflation and continued pressure on the won. A prolonged weakness in domestic demand will weigh on overall growth this year, but will be partly compensated by the KRW7.1trn fiscal stimulus package presented on June 8. We are more optimistic about external demand as export diversification has lowered South Korea's exposure to the US, meaning that the export sector should benefit from continued strong growth in China and other emerging markets. Overall, we view the balance of risks to GDP forecast for 2008 as being on the downside.