Economy / Vietnam
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Short Term Political Stability But Long Term Dangers
September 2006 | Risk SummarySorry, you must be a subscriber to view this article in full. If you are a subscriber please login.
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We perceive Vietnam to have very low short-term political risk but in the long term we expect a significant regime change. The government's tight control on policymaking and the negligible risk of succession make Vietnam very politically stable. In the long term, however, we see Vietnam's one-party state as unsustainable. As Vietnam's development roars forward and its population become more affluent and educated, they will demand more political freedom and more control over how the country is run. It may be that the eventual move towards democracy takes place without serious unrest and without seriously affecting business, but there is