Economy / Vietnam
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Macroeconomic Forecast Vietnam
April 2006 | Macroeconomic ForecastsSorry, you must be a subscriber to view this article in full. If you are a subscriber please login.
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We have broadly kept our forecasts stable over the past month, and believe that the economy will continue to expand at around 8% over the medium term. However, we are increasingly concerned about the current account, and now expect that the deficit will deteriorate faster in 2006 than we initially projected. Notwithstanding this, we believe that investment inflows will continue to grow, with the implication that the exchange rate is likely to depreciate against the dollar more slowly than originally assumed. Indeed, there are upside risks to our forecasts of a modest 1% depreciation in 2006.