Economy / South Korea
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Macroeconomic Forecast South Korea
August 2004 | Macroeconomic ForecastsSorry, you must be a subscriber to view this article in full. If you are a subscriber please login.
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Soaring oil prices will continue to eat into corporate profits in South Korea, the world's fourth-largest buyer of oil. This will only add to nation's domestic problems. Consumer confidence is at a four-year low and private spending is anaemic, having fallen on an annual basis for most of 2003 and for the first six months of this year, according to our estimates. With luck, South Korea's booming export sector, combined with government spending and record-low interest rates, will ensure its lop-sided economy continues to function adequately, although far from perfectly. Real GDP will rise by 5.4% this year - which represents a downgrade from our forecast a month ago of 5.9%.