Political Risk

BMI View: Japan's ambitions to raise its global influence will face major constraints over the coming years. These include its weak political system, the legacy of World War II, its... 2009-02-06

BMI View: A possible North Korean long-range missile test reflects Pyongyang's desire to strengthen its hand in future negotiations with the US. It could also reflect Kim Jong Il's... 2009-02-05

We do not foresee any major changes in economic or foreign policy following the replacement of Finance Minister Kang Man-soo and Unification Minister Kim Ha-joong. Nevertheless, the... 2009-01-19

BMI View: North-South Korean relations are at a potential turning point, with a new US president coming in, and Northern leader Kim Jong Il reportedly ill. Pyongyang, sensing a potential... 2008-12-02

Beijing is facing an increasingly tough choice with regards to slowing economic activity. On the one hand, the Chinese government must do all that it can to avoid mass social unrest... 2008-11-19

BMI View: Despite reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il suffered a stroke in August, there have been no signs of unusual developments to indicate instability. In the event... 2008-10-03

BMI View: As North Korea marks the 60th anniversary of its establishment on September 9 2008, we outline five scenarios for political change.

President Hu Jintao has promised that China will stand by the pledges it made when it was awarded the Olympic Games back in 2001 to improve its human rights record and engender greater... 2008-08-13

BMI View: North Korea is expected to convene its Supreme People's Assembly (SPA) in September, and this is likely to be accompanied by a reshuffle of senior officials. This in turn... 2008-08-01

BMI View: Pyongyang's long-awaited nuclear declaration, submitted on June 26, effectively lets the regime off the hook on a number of sensitive issues. Most significantly, North Korea... 2008-06-27