Macroeconomic Forecast Vietnam

Trade exports grew at a robust 19.7% y-o-y in January, supported by strong growth in exports of rubber, electronics and food products. We note that high food prices could provide a strong incentive for boosting agricultural exports in the coming months. Our upgraded outlook for US and China economic growth in 2011 also suggest that Vietnamese exports are expected to remain robust in the coming months. We are forecasting trade exports to grow by 9.0% from US$64.0bn in 2010 to US$69.7bn in 2011.

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