Blockbuster Export Figure To Mark A Peak

China's trade surplus hit an eight-month peak in June, coming in at US$20.0bn, with exports rising to an all-time high of US$137.4bn. Given the economic weakness in the eurozone and signs of a slowdown in the US, persistent export strength is impressive, particularly in light of the strength that Chinese yuan has experienced on a trade-weighted basis. However, we outline five main reasons why exports probably peaked in June and why we are maintaining our view of a gradually declining trade surplus in H210.

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