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Political Risk / South Korea

Poor Election Showing Bodes Badly For GNP

June 2010 | Political Risk Analysis

The Grand National Party's (GNP) lacklustre performance in the June 2 local election bodes badly for the party's prospects in the national and presidential elections scheduled for 2012. Indeed, we expect the poor results for the party to catalyse further dissent and factionalism within the ruling party, undermining its support and thereby boosting the electoral prospects of the rival Democratic Party. Furthermore, elevated tensions on the Korean Peninsula are likely to ensure a divisive political landscape in the months ahead, undermining any prospect of GNP revival.

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