Recovery Nearing A Peak?

After expanding by a better-than-expected rate of 2.6% y-o-y in Q409, Hong Kong's real GDP contracted by 2.7% in 2009, slightly less than our -3.0% forecast. However, with the investment recovery dependent on an unsustainable property market and the global trade recovery potentially nearing a peak, we believe that real GDP growth will disappoint in 2010, at just 2.4%.

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