Macroeconomic Forecast India

Despite the fanfare which preceded the FY2010/11 (April-March) budget delivery in February, the government's actual fiscal deficit projections are little changed (with the central deficit projected to come in at 5.5% and 4.6% of GDP in FY2010/11 and FY2011/12, respectively). We continue to forecast nominal central government shortfalls of 5.6% and 5.2% of GDP in FY2010/11 and FY2011/12. Moreover, we see India's public debt load falling only marginally from 79.2% of GDP in FY2009/10 to 76.2% of GDP by FY2011/12.

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