Macroeconomic Forecast Bangladesh

We maintain our 5.5% real GDP growth forecast for FY2009/10 (July-June) as the export-focused manufacturing sector has lost steam and agricultural growth is depressed by a high base. However, estimates that growth amounted to 5.9% in the first half of the fiscal year has brought upside risks to this projection. Growth should accelerate to 6.5% in FY2010/11, but an increased pace of reform will be needed to raise growth rates over the medium-to-long term. The government projected a real GDP growth target for FY2009/10 of 5.5-6.0% percent in the budget for the year.

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