Macroeconomic Forecast Cambodia

In the absence of timely data, we continue to hold to our 0.5% real GDP growth estimate for 2009, albeit with risks of downward revision. Our estimate is slightly more upbeat than that of the Asian Development Bank (at -1.5%) and International Monetary Fund (-2.75%), but below the official government forecast of 2.0%. In any case, we continue to see an improvement in growth conditions in 2010, as the global trade cycle recovers, forecasting real economic expansion of 4.9%.

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