Macroeconomic Forecast Vietnam

Real GDP growth came in at 6.9% y-o-y in Q409, bringing full-year growth in 2009 to 5.3%, according to estimates released by the General Statistics Office of Vietnam in late December. This was slightly above our 5.1% growth forecast for 2009, due to upward revisions to Q309 data. We are forecasting growth to slow to 4.4% in 2010, significantly below the 6.5% targeted by the government in November, as we believe fiscal and monetary policy will need to be tightening sharply in order to rein in the expanding trade deficit and curb inflation.

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