Political Repression To Increase In 2010

We expect the Vietnamese government to continue tightening its screws on political dissidents ahead of the Communist Party of Vietnam's five-yearly National Congress in January 2011. Tranh Anh Kim, leader of the pro-democracy Bloc 8406 group, was jailed for 5½ years on December 28 for subversion and four other pro-democracy activists arrested with Kim in July 2009 are to be tried in court in early 2010. While Vietnam scores 80 out of 100 in our short-term political risk rating, its 52.8 long-term political risk rating reflects our opinion that one-party rule is ultimately unsustainable.

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