Macroeconomic Forecast India

India posted growth of 6.1% y-o-y in Q209 after a 5.8% reading in both Q408 and Q109, which brought full-year growth in FY2008/09 (April-March) to 6.7%, the weakest reading since FY2002/03. We maintain our 6.1% GDP growth forecast for FY2009/10 with downside risks in the form of a poor monsoon and upside risks from a higher momentum in the industrial sector and a better external outlook currently offsetting each other.

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