Macroeconomic Forecast Vietnam

We maintain our 2.9% growth forecast for 2009 after GDP grew by an estimated 3.1% y-o-y in Q109 following a revised 6.2% expansion in 2008. While the economy is likely to continue to suffer, we caution that Q109 could have been the bottom of the current downturn as heavy monetary and fiscal stimulus measures are now gaining traction. Nonetheless, we expect the recovery to be very gradual in nature and are forecasting GDP growth of a mere 5.0% in 2010.

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