Q1 GDP: Avoiding Recession, Technically

While we think the modest expansion of the South Korean economy in Q109 should be seen as positive news, we do not see it as a sign that a sustainable recovery is necessarily afoot. Indeed, as we have argued in the past, the revival of the Korean economy is likely to be a very gradual process, with growth in the coming quarters still liable to fall into negative territory. As such, we believe that our current 2009 and 2010 real GDP growth forecasts of 3.3% and -1.8% respectively are still consistent with the prevailing domestic and global dynamics

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