Economy / North Korea

Five Scenarios For Political Change

September 2008 | Political Risk Analysis

Printable version
Bookmark

BMI View: As North Korea marks the 60th anniversary of its establishment on September 9 2008, we outline five scenarios for political change.

To read the full article, please choose one of the following options:

Subcribers please log in

Related Monitor Articles

Pyongyang Could Face Libya-Style Rebellion

Economy / North Korea BMI View: Rather than see an Egyptian-style popular uprising, it is more likely that North Korea could eventually face a regional rebellion, taking it to the brink of civil war. Regardless, Western military...

March 2011

Pyongyang Likely Nervous About Cairo Unrest

Economy / North Korea BMI View: Egypt's sudden upsurge in political unrest has served as a major warning to authoritarian leaders around the world that even solid regimes can come a cropper. While there are some similarities...

February 2011

What To Expect In 2011

Economy / North Korea BMI View: North Korea's top priority in 2011 will be to ensure that the conditions are in place for a smooth transfer of power from Kim Jong Il to his son Kim Jong Un, which will most probably take place...

January 2011

Sunken Ship: Cause Unknown, Tensions Linger

Political Risk / North Korea BMI View: While it now appears that North Korea was not responsible for the sinking of a South Korean warship on March 26, tensions in the West Sea will linger. This will sour the atmosphere ahead...

March 2010

Economy Robust In 2008, But 2009 Will Be Very Tough

Economy / North Korea BMI View: North Korea's economy grew by an impressive 3.7% in 2008, due to 'one-off' factors, but this success is unlikely to be repeated in 2009, due to the severity of the global recession and the...

June 2009