Macroeconomic Forecast Bangladesh

BMI View: We estimate slower real GDP growth of 6.00% in FY07/08 (July-June), owing to natural disasters in H207, high inflation (which hit a 17-year high of 11.6% in December 2007, before easing to 7.44% in May) and fuel prices, and political uncertainty ahead of the December 2008 elections. Indeed, the highly uncertain policy environment is likely to constrain growth in FY08/09, but we are projecting 6.3% expansion in the current fiscal year, as the election of a new government should boost investment.

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