Collapse Averted, But Congress Still Vulnerable

July 2008 | Political Risk Analysis

BMI View: The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government continues to look unstable ahead of national elections in the coming year in spite of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's avoidance of a collapse of the coalition on the back of the Communist Party's opposition to a nuclear pact with the US. We believe the next government will be led by the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party as the Indian Congress (INC) Party looks unlikely to be able to reverse its current unpopularity before the upcoming national elections, which have to be called before May 2009.

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