Economy / South Korea
Increased Tensions
April 2008 | Risk SummaryTensions on the Korean peninsula have risen in the past month as Pyongyang tested short-range missiles and expelled South Koreans from the inter-Korean business zone in Kaesong. We believe the moves are yet another instance of North Korean brinkmanship in order to exert vital food and fuel aid without having to make material progress on its denuclearisation pledges. We see North-South relations remaining deadlocked for the next year as South Korean President Lee Myung-bak will face pressure from more conservative elements within his Grand National Party and Pyongyang awaits the entry of a new US President on January 20 2009.
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