Macroeconomic Forecast China

July 2007 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI View: China's economy is showing no convincing signs of slowing, with real GDP growth accelerating to 11.1% y-o-y in Q107, after easing to 10.4% y-o-y in Q406. BMI is forecasting the economy to grow by 10.5% this year and 10.4% in 2008 - buoyed by the Beijing Olympics - before easing thereafter into single figures. Excess liquidity, generated by China's vast trade surplus and large inflows of FDI, remains a key problem, and continues to fuel rapid investment growth. Indeed, the continued strength of China's economic data emphasises the ineffectiveness of the authorities' cooling measures to date. We expect

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