Macroeconomic Forecast Hong Kong

BMI View: Despite a slowdown in Q206 growth - to 5.2% y-o-y from a revised 8.0% in Q1 - we retain our full year forecast for real GDP growth of 6.2% in 2006. While the economy remains vulnerable to downside external risks, the ongoing recovery in domestic demand will help to support growth. Encouragingly, private business activity expanded by its fastest rate in four months in September, with the Purchasing Managers' Index rising to a seasonally adjusted 53.7 (a reading above 50 indicates an expansion in activity), up from 51.6 in

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