Macroeconomic Forecast Bangladesh

BMI View: Real GDP growth in FY2005/06 (July-June) is likely to be around 5.9%, up from 5.4% in FY04/05, thanks to strong domestic demand, fuelled by rising remittances. However, we forecast a slowdown to 5.5% in FY06/07, because of disruption caused in the run-up to and in the aftermath of the January 2007 general election. Frequent strike actions by the opposition, combined with electricity and water shortages, have disrupted business activities. Furthermore, political noise is likely to rise ahead of the vote, and the outcome may well be disputed, adding to the uncertainty. Meanwhile, foreign investors may put plans on

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