Macroeconomic Forecast Cambodia

Government View: Cambodian officials appear unable to settle on a firm growth forecast for 2006. Prime Minister Hun Sen in early July indicated that 5.0% full-year expansion was likely, against 13.4% in 2004. Later in July, Finance Minister Keat Chhon said that 7.2% GDP growth was attainable. The Ministry of Planning Statistics Institute has projected 6.7% growth and the IMF 5% expansion. We are standing by our own 6.3% forecast. Strong tourism figures will help. Foreign tourist arrivals rose by 19% y-o-y in Jan-June, according to the Ministry of Tourism.

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