Macroeconomic Forecast Philippines

March 2006 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

Real growth of 5.1% in 2005 was marginally higher than our original forecast. However, with industrial production growth fairly weak - the three month moving average was 1.3% y-o-y in November - and exports contracting in the three months to October, the most likely scenario is that growth will slow in 2006. However, inflation fell markedly in the second half of the year, despite high oil prices, and the central bank. may have some latitude in monetary policy.

Consensus View: Full-year growth came in higher than the consensus forecast of 4.6% in 2005, but few institutions expect the situation

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