Bird Flu Risks To Growth

April 2006 | Business Environment Outlook

While global growth continues to strengthen, shaking off the effects of high oil prices and slowly tightening monetary policy in key nations, the risk of a human to human form of bird flu is casting an ever larger shadow over policy-making globally. In response, our team of economists have modelled the impact of two scenarios, both of which it is assumed starts in Asia, where the disease (H5N1) is endemic. The first scenario envisages a virulence similar to that which emerged in 1957-58 and in mortality rates averaged 1%, while the second, more severe, scenario is based on the virulence

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