Macroeconomic Forecast Cambodia

March 2006 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

We forecast that the Cambodian economy will grow by 6.1% in 2006. This slowdown on 2005's estimated growth rate of 7% largely reflects our expectation that there will be some reversion to Cambodia's long-run trend growth rate. If stability is maintained and the pace of reform continues, however, Cambodia's impressive recent growth rate could be sustained. Avian flu remains a significant risk to growth, as do high oil prices. There is also a need for Cambodia to diversify its industrial base, since its narrow dependence on garments, agriculture and tourism make it highly vulnerable to specific shocks.

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