Macroeconomic Forecast Cambodia

February 2006 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

The latest ADB growth forecast for Cambodia sees the economy growing by 6.1% in 2006, which is equal to the IMF's forecast, but above the 6.0% growth forecasted by the World Bank. Our own forecast is 6.1% but we do warn that the risks to the this forecast are very much to downside. Although demand for tourism and textile exports should remain robust, the risks posed by bird flu and action by international donors could prove economically very costly. The ADB estimates bird flu has already cost Cambodia as much as 0.3% of GDP. If bird flu mutates to allow human-to-human transmission, BMI estimate GDP in the whole of Asia will fall by around 2.9%.

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