Macroeconomic Forecast Thailand

November 2004 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI are now forecasting Thai GDP growth this year at 6.2%, following our downgrade last month from 6.8%. The lower forecast follows the publication of Q2 GDP results, which showed the Thai economy grew by 6.3% in Q2 2004, compared with 6.6% in Q1. Thailand appears to have been especially hard hit by the ongoing outbreak of bird flu, which first began at the start of the year, and higher oil prices, which reached another record high (in nominal terms) in October. The Q2 growth slowdown was especially worrying for Thailand because investment and consumption, Thailand's two main growth drivers over the last two years, are showing signs of a slowdown.

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