Myanmar

June 2004 | Risk Summary

The National Convention, which is to draft a new constitution ahead of eventual elections, has gone ahead without the participation of the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD). This is a major setback, which increases the likelihood of political and social unrest. Nevertheless, this is probably not the most likely outcome. As much as outsiders may find the military government and its treatment of the NLD abhorrent, there is little to suggest its grip on power is slipping. By a combination of coercion and co-optation - not least the penetration of the armed forces into all spheres of life

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