Myanmar

April 2004 | Risk Summary

Both the government and the opposition will want to give the constitution-drafting process, scheduled to start in May, a chance. Whether it succeeds in breaking the political deadlock depends on the willingness of both sides to compromise. The military will want protection from future prosecution and reassurances that the country will not disintegrate into anarchy. For the opposition, a commitment on the part of the military to give up some power and eventually allow elections is essential. In both respects, the risk of failure is high. A reversion to the status quo would increase the risk of social and political

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