Macroeconomic Forecast Bangladesh

March 2004 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

Bangladesh's economy will, for the rest of the year, fare reasonably well. Growth will remain rapid, the exchange rate will remain stable, and the external health of the economy will remain in good shape. Next year, however, the economic risks will escalate. The phasing out of the Multifibre Agreement at the end of the year will expose Bangladesh's huge textile industry to the hard economics of free trade. Hundreds of thousands, according to some estimates, could lose their jobs. Only US-imposed trade restrictions on textile exports from China will prevent Bangladesh from being undercut by cheaper competitors. Next fiscal year, which starts this July, real GDP will rise 5.1%, so long as aid keeps flowing and China's trade remains restricted.

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