Macroeconomic Forecast Taiwan

BMI View: We have maintained our 2004 GDP growth forecast for Taiwan at 5.4% despite faster than expected first quarter growth of 6.3%. The main driver of growth throughout the year is likely to be net exports, with Taiwan benefiting from strong growth in neighbouring China and in the recovery of the US economy. Risks remain however, including a hard-landing in China, a rise in US interest rates, and high oil prices.

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