US$16bn Aid Pledge Unlikely To Fully Materialise

BMI View: The international community pledged to give Afghanistan US$16bn in development aid through to 2015 at a conference in Tokyo on July 8. Given the still-poor state of governance in the country, we expect the actual flow of aid to be lower than the pledged amount, as progress on the reform front will likely be incremental in nature. History suggests that any shortfall would not come as a shock to the government, as the donor community has repeatedly disappointed Afghanistan by significant margins.

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