South Korea

We believe that the ruling Saenuri Party's Park Geun-hye will head into December's presidential election with a solid lead over her closest competitors, independent candidate Ahn Cheol-soo and the Democratic United Party's (DUP) Moon Jae-in. However, the volatile nature of South Korea's political landscape could quickly see a turn of events and see Park lose her frontrunner position. Social welfare and economic slowdown are likely to feature as dominant themes during the election. Regardless of the outcome, we envisage neither a material change to the policymaking process, nor the business environment, although we could see a number of policy-inducing measures that would compel the chaebols to loosen their grip on the economy.

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