Macroeconomic Forecast Bangladesh

Since we last argued that taka weakness would continue 'unabated' (see 'BDT: Continued Weakness', November 16 2011), the unit has depreciated significantly against the dollar, hitting an historic low BDT84.50/US$ on January 30. The taka has since bounced to current levels, with Bangladesh Bank (BB) having maintained a hard peg against the dollar at approximately BDT82.00/US$ since late February. With the country's balance of payments picture stabilising, we expect the central bank to be able to keep to its current exchange rate regime. As such, we have revised our end-2012 exchange rate forecast to BDT82.00/US$.

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