Rebound Set For An About-Turn In H112

The recent uptick in Hong Kong's Q411 real GDP growth is likely to reverse in the first half of 2012. Weakening external demand conditions should see Hong Kong's exports take a hit. Meanwhile, the correction in the domestic real estate market is likely to gather pace through 2012, having ramifications on consumption and investment spending. Consequently, we have revised our 2012 forecasts and now see real GDP growth slowing to 2.2% from a previous estimate of 3.0%

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