Macroeconomic Forecast Bangladesh

Remittance growth jumped from -9.0% y-o-y in November to 18.4% in December, with the monthly inflow hitting a record high of US$1,147.2mn in the last month of 2011. The total amount of remittances in the first half of the current fiscal year (FY2011/12, July-June) stands at US$6.1bn, marking a 9.3% increase from the US$5.6bn recorded in the first half of FY2010/11. The latest figure poses downside risk on our forecast for net transfers to increase by 10.6% this fiscal year to US$13.4bn. That said, we note that the ongoing strength of manpower exports should keep remittance inflows well supported.

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