Macroeconomic Forecast Cambodia

Tourist arrivals into Cambodia nosedived 23.6% y-o-y in November, in a clear sign that the devastating floods seen in Thailand and Cambodia in H112 have had a deleterious impact on economic activity. With this in mind, Q411 real GDP data is likely to disappoint, and we continue to expect below-par headline expansion of 4.8% in 2012. This stands significantly below the government's own forecast of 7.0% and the IMF's 7.3% projection.

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